The Past Ten Presidential Elections In Today's Electorate

If the electorates in presidential cycles going back to the 1976 election (the year detailed exit polls are available) looked as the electorate did in 2012, what would the previous results look like? Our hypothesis is that if the Democrats would have won every election (or most), then the gains for Democrats (or the losses for the GOP) are purely demographic in nature, and if not, then there is an additional factor or factors pushing the current advantage.

Turning Texas Blue?

When thinking about improving their electoral standing, Democrats turn towards the nation’s future demographic changes, particularly in states like Texas. Even after the successful 2012 election, Democrats have continued to look at where growth is possible. Since President Barack Obama won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote nationwide in 2012, and as the number of Hispanic voters increases in states like Texas, excitement is rising among some Democrats that upcoming elections in 2014 and 2016 will offer a glimpse of the future: a blue Texas. In our opinion, this rapid transformation of the Texas electorate is mainly wishful thinking (at least for the foreseeable future).

Read the full memo here.

Changing Demographics and Its Effects on the State and National Level

The newest iteration of our projections memo on how demographic trends in the US will affect the Presidential race includes a new section on the impact that these shifts will have on U.S. Senate races and includes breakouts of the projected outcomes in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Texas. These states will experience the greatest shifts, and gaining minority support within them will be essential for both parties in the elections to come. We also look at different potential strategies and demographic coalitions that Republicans and Democrats can use in these states to win the majority.

Read the full memo here.