It’s been an interesting end of June and early July for Democrats to say the least. The early debate gamble has definitively played out poorly for the Biden campaign, and the entirety of the messaging around the election is now focused squarely on Biden and his age. Clearly this is not where the party wants to be. Our friends over at Trendency have been releasing a daily tracker of the fallout from the debate, as well as the reaction to Trump’s guilty verdict back in May. The short version is that the numbers (as July 8th) have stopped dropping for Biden, but so far there was no indication of a rebound.
While it will likely take time before the focus shifts back to Trump (hopefully not too long), we thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the public’s opinion had changed after Trump’s conviction. Moving from the hypothetical to the actual news of the former President being found guilty on all 34 felony counts.
Where it Began and Where We Are
In May we asked the American public a series of questions to better understand how they viewed the charges Donald Trump is facing, how closely they were watching the cases in New York, Florida, and Georgia, and where they tend to get their news and information from. After the convictions in New York, we thought it would be interesting to see how much the perceptions towards his looming cases, and whether the verdict was politically motivated, have changed or stayed the same.
Not surprisingly, attention to Trump’ cases increased after the New York convictions. Among all voters, those paying very close attention increased by 9 percentage points, and if we add in those also paying attention there was an increase of 8 percentage points among those indication a reasonable level of attention.
The increase in attention was universal when we look at partisanship, although 2020 Biden voters had a much larger increase (17 points) than 2020 Trump voters (4 points) when looking at those paying very close attention. Gender and age also had a strong effect on the numbers. Men, especially those over the age of 65, were paying the closest attention pre-convictions, and were still the most likely to be paying attention after the rulings (66% of men overall and 77% of men over the age of 65), while interest in the cases has increased among women overall at a similar rate as men (59% currently compared to 47% in our report a month ago) the overall level of attention is seven points lower among women.
How much people are paying attention is one part of the equation, but where people are getting their information matters more and more. Overall, just under 6 in 10 Americans say that they go to FoxNews regularly (18%) or every so often (41%) when it comes to issues that are important to them. A slightly lower number report going to CNN either regularly (18%) or every so often (41%).
Not surprisingly partisanship has a big effect on where people turn to for news. Nearly 9 in 10 Trump supporters who say they are paying attention to the trials go to FoxNews either regularly (34%) or every so often (50%), while just 14% say they never go to FoxNews as a source of information. Among Biden supporters 17% say they regularly got to FoxNews while an additional 30% say they do so occasionally. For CNN the numbers are roughly the opposite with 80% of Biden supporters reporting they go to CNN regularly (31%) or every so often (49%) compared to Trump supporters who where just 44% say they go to CNN regularly (9%) or every so often (35%).
Regardless of where people get their news from, the feeling that the cases being brought against Trump are based on the law (versus being politically motivated) gained a little bit of traction. Before and after the convictions, we asked respondents to indicate what percent of the charges against Trump were politically motivated and what percent did they feel were based on the law. In May the average score given to the cases being about the law increased from 51.8% to 52.02% while the idea that the charges are politically motivated dropped from 48.2% to 48% on average.
Overall, the views on either end of the spectrum increased after the verdict. In May, 16% of Americans felt that the charges were 100% about politics while 21% felt it was 100% about the law. An additional 21% felt it was more about the laws than politics in May while 23% felt it was more about politics. Together this meant 43% of Americans felt the charges were more about the law, while 39% felt it was more about politics.
After the indictments the overall view of whether it was more about politics or the law barely moved (one point towards more about politics), there was noticeable movement towards the bookends. Those who feel the charges are 100% about politics increased 4 points to 20%, while those who feel it was 100% about the law increased by the same number.
As with most issues these days, the divisions are almost exclusively about partisanship. In May among Trump supporters who were paying at least some attention to the cases, 43% felt that the charges were 100% political, while 81% overall felt that it was more about politics. Just 9% felt it was more about the law. After the guilty verdicts, the biggest shift was among those who felt the cases were almost exclusively about politics. In May 30% felt that 80-99% of the cases were political, which dropped to 22% in June with a quarter of the movement heading in the direction of the cases being 100% political and ¾ heading in the direction of the cases being more about the law.
Biden voters see the cases very differently. Indeed, before the verdict 78% viewed the cases being based mostly on the law. This view weakened slightly after the verdict with 74% of Biden voters now feeling it was mostly about the law. The biggest increase was with the view that the case was 100% about the law where the concentration jumped from 39% pre-verdict to 49% post.
As we previously stated, the likelihood of the case having a big effect on voters seems slim, but given how close this race currently is, a few points in either direction can make a huge difference in the outcome.
Looking at a different angle, the idea of how fair the New York trial was also tending to split down party lines. When it comes to fairness, most Biden voters believe the trial was fair to some degree (86%) while less than one fifth of Trump voters believe the same (19%).
Agreement over the verdict goes hand in hand with opinion on fairness of the trial as most Biden voters agree on the verdict (89%) while only 22% of Trump voters believe the same. Compared to Biden voters, 73% of Trump supporters disagree with the verdict but this is still less compared to Biden voters that agree. Although the difference between these two sentiments gives us a clear understanding of how both parties view the trial, the true statistical takeaway comes from the data regarding all Americans. As of right now, over half of the American population (52%) agree with verdict while 34% do not agree.
It will also be interesting to see what happens to the 22% of Trump voters who agree with the verdict. Will it be enough to consider voting for a different candidate in 2024? Or did the debate snap these voters back to where they were in 2020?