In June 2022, the Supreme Court made a series of decisions that were received poorly by a large percentage of the American public. The Dobbs v. Jackson decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, arguably received the largest amount of attention. Also included were the decisions of West Virginia v. the E.P.A (which curbed the powers of the E.P.A. when regulating the
energy sector), Carson v. Makin (which legitimized the practice of prayer in public schools), and
Kennedy v. Bremerton School District (which established excluding religious schools from
public funding as unconstitutional). All of which were passed through by the six conservative justices in the majority.
These decisions pushed public opinion around the Supreme Court in a negative direction and were the impetus for our look into the views that the public held of the Court, and the public’s openness to a set of potential reforms. As discussed, a year ago, the legitimacy of the Court, for many Americans, was in question.
In May, with anticipation for the release of new decisions, we revisited many of the questions from a year ago to see how views had shifted within the American public. However, now that the next round of decisions was released, we thought it would be interesting to see how the rulings impacted the opinions Americans hold. The most recent rulings involved some controversial topics; such as Biden v. Nebraska and Department of Education v. Brown (which overturned the White House’s plans to implement federal student loan forgiveness), 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis (which allowed discrimination of selling goods on the basis of sexual orientation due to religious beliefs), as well as Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina (which halted the use of affirmative action in university admissions). All of these rulings were passed by the conservative majority in a 6-3 vote similar to those in 2022.
In July 2022, right after these decisions were made, there was a high level of negative feelings with over half (55 percent) of the views Americans held of the Court being negative in nature, while 44 percent were positive. In May of this year, we found that the negative feelings subsided slightly while the positive feelings increased. Indeed, the negative perceptions dropped to an average of 46 percent (a 9-point drop) and the concentration of positive feelings increased roughly seven points to 51 percent.
After the release of the 2023 decisions, however, there was a resurgence of negative feelings. Currently, the public is closely split on positive vs negative feelings about the Court, with the negative feelings currently surpassing those that are positive. The negative feelings did not return to the point we observed last year, but there was an increase of over 3 points in just two months. While Americans may not be demonstrating as much dissatisfaction as last July, public opinion still struggles as the Supreme Court is dominated by the conservative majority.
Looking specifically at positive feelings, the movement from July of 2022 to May of this year was notable with an increase of 6.31 points. While this was slightly lower than the drop in negative opinions (8.98 points), the fact that the average was above the 50 percent threshold was remarkable, given the reaction to the overturn of Roe. The two-month span from May 2023 to early July dropped the average below the 50 percent mark, but the decrease of 1.17 points was clearly much less than the increase seen from 2022 to 2023.
When breaking down positive feelings by demographic, there are some divides between different groups. Asian Americans had much stronger reactions, dropping 22.7 points on average, more than double the next largest movement. Across all groups, men tended to have the largest declines in positive opinions, with Hispanic men being the second largest decrease (losing 10.12 points). On the other hand, all demographics of women saw increases in positive feelings, with White women increasing the most by 5.99 points. There was also a clear political divide, with Biden voters’ positive opinions dropping by 8.65 points while Trump voters’ increased by 5.29 points.
Alternatively, negative feelings saw an average increase of 3.85 points. A threefold change compared to positive feelings.
Unlike the divided demographics seen with positive feelings, the breakdown for negative feelings shows most groups negative feelings increased from May to July. With Asian Americans also showing the largest change, an increase of 25.05 points on average. Also, unlike positive feelings, both men and women saw increases in negative feelings. With men seeing higher increases on average in most groups. However, not all groups saw an increase; those making less than $40,000 dollars per year, white men, and those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 all saw decreases in negative feelings. With the two significant decreases being white men dropping by 4.1 points and Trump voters by 4.57. Republicans are gaining favor as the Court is currently in a conservative majority and white men are seeing similar trends as decisions like the removal of affirmative action do pose benefits for them.
When we move past the averages and breakdown the data by the scores Americans provided, we can see a shift from a strong distribution of very low positive feelings in July of 2022 to more evenly divided responses in May 2023. With a total increase of 6-points on the higher end of the positive feelings scale between July 2022 and May 2023, the split became 34 percent low positive ranks compared to 35 percent strong positive feelings, with the remining 31 percent in the middle. A year prior it had been 29 percent higher positive, with 40 percent at the low end of the scale.
Despite the release of multiple controversial decisions in June of 2023, positive feelings did not see as much of a shift. With those in the middle growing by 3-points and strong feelings dropping by 4-points, the range remains more evenly divided than in 2022.
Looking again at the breakdown of the scores given by Americans, this time with negative feelings, in July 2022 there was a high concentration with 38 percent holding strong negative sentiments compared to the middle group who comprised 31 percent of American adults, and 31 percent who had a very low concentration of negative feelings. This shifted over the year similar to positive feelings, evening out in May to 35 percent of Americans holding strong negative feelings compared to 34 percent who had a low concentration of negative feelings. The 31 percent in the middle did not change on a percentage basis.
Following the decisions of 2023, despite the overall increase in negative feelings, the trend from 2022 to 2023 continued into July. Low concentrations of negative feelings grew by 1-point while strong concentrations declined by 3-points to 32 percent. The largest growth was the middle group that increased by 2 points.
Last year, detractors of the Court pointed to their rulings as not being grounded in the Constitution and more based on other considerations. Given this line of argument being so prevalent, we continued to ask Americans what they felt the Court’s motivations were.
When first asked in July of last year, there was an even split between Americans who believed the rulings were based on the Constitution and those who believed they were based on other considerations. On average Americans believed these decisions were a close split between the Constitution and other considerations. This lack of faith changed slightly between July of 2022 and May of 2023. In May, the belief that the decisions were being made on other considerations decreased from 49.4 percent to 45.8 percent, and the sentiment that the rulings are being based on the Constitution increased from 50.4 percent to 51.9 percent.
With the release of the 2023 decisions, we wanted to see if Americans attitudes around the Court’s motivations changed. Similar to the positive versus negative feelings, there was a jump in the idea that the decisions were not being made based on the Constitution (an increase of 2.4 points), but it did not reach the level of 2022. Also, there was very little decline in the feeling that the decisions are being based on the Constitution (a 0.1-point drop). It is worth noting that even at the high-water mark for the Court over the past year or so, the country is very divided on their motivations.
While the averages moved slightly, when we look at the breakdown of the scores, the changes become clearer. Looking at the breakdown of the idea that the decisions were based on the Constitution, we can see a similar range in 2023 as we saw in 2022, with a 4-point increase in strong believers and a 2-point increase in weak believers. These small increases did not last long, with the 2023 decisions bringing strong believers back down 3-points and weak believers down 1-point. Overall, between July 2022 and July 2023, there was not much change in the range of scores, those who believe the Court is remaining faithful to the Constitution hold steady support despite the release of new decisions.
However, these changes become starker when looking at the breakdown of those who believe the decisions are based on other considerations and not the Constitution. In 2022, the view that the Supreme Court was not making decisions based on the Constitution was closely divided by those who felt this strongly (30 percent), those who do not feel this as strongly, or at all, (36 percent), and those in the middle (34 percent). In May of 2023, those who felt strongly dropped three points, those who did not feel that strongly increased by seven points, and those who are in the middle decreased by four points.
This reverted back after the decisions were released in June of 2023. With weak believers dropping 8 points, to a level lower than July 2022, and strong believers growing back by 1 point. This reversal is unlike what we saw with those who believe the Supreme Court grounds their decisions in the Constitution. Americans who believe the decisions are based on other considerations are much more critical and opinions shifted back to similar levels as decisions were released once again.
As we have observed, public opinion did see some improvement over the year after the 2022 decisions. However, these improvements faced setbacks with the new round of decisions released in June of 2023. While the last round of decisions did not prove as harmful to public opinion as the year prior, there is still a high level of dissatisfaction surrounding the Supreme Court’s decision-making process and as is so often the case these days, the country is incredibly divided on its views.