2016 Election

Third Parties: Always an Election Away

It’s been a common refrain virtually every election cycle: this is the year that a third party will make noise in the presidential election. Jill Stein of the Green Party is thought to be able to take away disaffected Bernie-or-Bust Democrats, but the most breathless coverage has been reserved for Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party. Will 2016 be the year of the Independent candidate?

Trumped: How Likely is a Donald Trump Victory?

Now that Trump is moving on to the next phase of the election cycle, there has been concern among both Democrats and Republicans about what a Trump presidency would look like. Most pundits have become a little gun shy when it comes to Trump predictions, while some have even gone as far as to say that he exceeded expectations in the primaries and there is a good chance he could do it again in the general. Which got us thinking- does he actually have a shot?

Trump and the Future of the GOP

Typically, we don’t spend a lot of time worrying about what the Republican Party is doing. However, this year, the dynamics on the right side of the aisle are beyond interesting. We therefore decided to look at the potential outcomes of the primary and the possible ways the different factions of the Republican coalition could deal with Trump – both at the Convention as well as in November if he becomes the nominee.

The "Moderate Independents" and Why They Matter

Over the last several months, frequent headlines point to the increasing number of Independent voters in the country as a tell-tale sign that more of the American electorate is up for grabs. On the other hand, evidence shows that many “Independents” are in fact ideologically conservative and likely to be disaffected Republicans.

Both analyses miss a vital group: True “Moderate Independents” – voters who do not align themselves with either party and also consider themselves ideologically between the two parties. Although they comprise just 5 percent of the electorate, they also promise to have outsized impact in 2016.

Read more here.