We’re heading into the final stretch before Election Day, and we’re back with an update on how Americans are thinking about voting.
Last month, we saw that Democrats had an advantage over Republicans in terms of who Americans were planning to vote for and who they ideally wanted in control of the House and Senate. Over the past month, the “race” has tightened as more Americans have solidified behind one of the two parties.
When we look at the breakdown of the scores compared to a month ago, we see that the percent of those who are certain about their vote increased 6 points for Democrats compared to three points for Republicans. However, we see a slight increase in the total percentage of Americans who are definitely, or leaning towards, voting for the Republican candidate (4-point increase).
Diving deeper, we see that the breakdown between men and women has experienced some movement over the course of the month. The number of women 100% certain they’re voting for the Democratic candidate increased by 5 points while the number of men 100% certain they’re voting jumped 6 points. However, now 22% of men are 100% certain they’re voting for the Republican candidate compared to just 15% in September.
In September we saw definitive differences in voting preference among women when we looked at different age groups. Last month women over the age of 65 were much more sure about their vote as well as more supportive overall of Democratic candidates. Four weeks later we find that younger cohorts are now looking more similar to the 65+ crowd. As you can see in the chart below, the number of younger women who are 100% certain they’re voting for the Democratic candidate increased dramatically over the last month, while women 45-64 and 65+ showed more moderate gains.
Over the past month we have also seen Democrats “coming home.” In September we found that most voters were sticking with their 2020 party preference, but 2020 Trump voters were much more confident in their vote. Four weeks later we find that the two voting groups are acting very similarly with a majority of both cohorts now 100% certain in their vote and about a quarter leaning towards voting for the same party this year as they did two years ago. Non 2020-voters also moved strongly towards supporting the Democratic candidate on November 8th.
Looking again at voters as a whole, we see that a plurality of voters want Democrats to retain control over both the House and the Senate. However, this number dropped by 4 points over the last month from 51% to 47%. In contrast, the number of those who would prefer to see Republicans in full control increased by 2 points and the number of those who would like a split House and Senate increased by 3 points.
Among the voters who say they’re unsure of who they’re voting for in the upcoming election (13% of the electorate), the number of those who want Democrats to maintain control of Congress decreased while those wanting Republican control held steady. Currently a plurality are hoping to see a split Congress in 2023.
Regardless of what people want to happen, we have also been asking voters what they think will happen. In September, two in five voters believed that Democrats would keep both the House and Senate, while one in five expected a split Congress, and 17% believed that the GOP would take control of both. Since then, the number of those expecting Democrats to stay in power has experienced a 5-point drop while the number of those expecting Republicans to take charge of both increased by 3 points. Additionally, both those who believe the Democrats will hold onto the Senate while losing the House and those who are unsure how the election will turn out increased by 2 points.
While it is not surprising that voters have become more certain overall about who they’re voting for with the election almost here, when we take a closer look there are several important findings to take into account. There’s been an increase in the number of young women, Biden voters, and those who didn’t vote in 2020 who say they’re 100% certain they’re voting for the Democratic candidate. Despite this, less than half of voters now say they want Democrats to keep control of both the House and the Senate and even fewer predict that will happen. What this all means is a bit of a guessing game but we will know the answers in less than a month from now.
