Senate PAAR 2014: A Look Back

Last July we released our PAAR (Percent Above Anticipated Result) projections for the 2014 Senate elections and now we wanted to take a look back and see how those projections stood up to reality. PAAR does not attempt to make exact predictions for every race, but instead is used to illustrate which candidates exceed or fall short of baseline expectations.

For a model that relies on no information (such as polling, fundraising, or most of the other factors that are often taken into account in traditional electoral projections) about any candidate besides whether they are an incumbent or not, these results are not only an impressive display of PAAR’s predictive ability, but they are a testament to how fundamentally important demographic changes of the electorate are to the outcomes of elections.

Read the full memo here.