As many might remember in July of this year we released the results of our presidential electoral model to predict the results of the 2012 election. As opposed to many predictive models out there (Nate Silver’s 538 blog being the best known) that rely on publicly available data up to the day of the election, our model is based mainly on past results and demographic changes in the country. We do not use any polling or factor in who the candidates are.
The model not only performed exceptionally well predicting the national support Obama would receive, but we predicted the state that would put Obama over the 270 threshold (Colorado).
The bottom line is our presidential voting patterns have become so predictable that $2billion was unable to move either candidate away from what was the most likely outcome. There has been discussion about how our democratic system is starting to resemble a parliamentary system, and the numbers show the party label is becoming the most important factor in presidential elections.
Read the full memo here.