Predictable Presidential Results: An Analysis of the Upcoming Presidential Election

Predicting the results of presidential elections is a practice engaged by everyone from average citizens to statisticians using complicated models with a vast array of variables. However, one does not need to crunch data on dozens of polling trends or economic variables to get a good understanding of the likely projection of how the upcoming presidential election will play out.

The model we introduce in our newest memo outlines the most important states for the election, including the projected order in which they are likely to fall for Obama. By ranking the likely outcome for the President in each state we can determine the likely point in time where the 270 electoral votes threshold would be passed. For the 2012 election, the model projects seven swing states, and the states that will likely prove to be the most decisive in the election, or are most likely to tip the balance in favor of one candidate, are Colorado, Ohio and Iowa.

Read the full memo here.