Using our PAAR model, we have created a baseline expectation for each of the 2014 Senate races. The model is not meant to be a prediction, but rather is a look at how a generic candidate should perform in the state’s current climate. There will undoubtedly be great and terrible candidates who exceed and fall short of the PAAR model estimates, but we will have to wait until November to see how badly or well the campaign performed. In the meantime, we feel the PAAR scores are very helpful at distinguishing the true toss-ups from the races that are interesting, but not necessarily competitive.
Read the full memo here.